Oxford Martin School

Professor Sir David King, former Chief Scientific Advisor of the UK Government and the newly appointed head of the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, gave his seminar on environmental challenges in the 21st Century. From his unique perspective of government and academia, Sir David took us through the many problems following from population growth, how they interacted, and how we might adapt to deal with them.  Citing the Clean Air Act removal of London smogs and legislation on car exhausts, the message was that if we put our minds to it we could solve these problems through inventive technology and government will.  For instance, the increased demand in food production from increased population demands a new green revolution which, according to King, can be solved by transgenic organisms, commonly referred to as genetically modified (GM) organisms (cf. Practical Ethics Blog).

Another severe threat to humanity comes from the spread of viral diseases on a global scale happening on timescales of a few months for humans, compared to the years it can take for animal populations, as seen with Avian flu H5N1.  Although we understand such a threat nationally, Sir David said we are poorly prepared internationally because the WHO lacks the required resources. Natural disasters constitute a major threat, against which currently available technologies are able to protect us better. Sir David, for example, estimated that an early warning system in the Indian Ocean, like the one that is now in place, could have saved 150,000 of the 230,000 deaths in the wake of the 2004 Indonesian Tsunami.

Sir David then moved onto his big worry, the threat from manmade climate change.  With many examples he charted our “Hot Topic” future.  It does not look rosy.  In pointing out correlations between temperature rise and cyclone intensity, and in melting of the Greenland icecap, King was more pessimistic than the last IPPC report.  In asking if we are at a “Tipping Point”, Sir David believes the question is academic as we must face up to the consequences of a hotter world already.  We must also decide if we wish to inflict severe catastrophic climate change by not acting on carbon emissions.

Sir David accuses governments of proceeding with research funding as they have done for the last several decades – a research funding that is not adequate for the pressing challenges of the 21st century.

Many of the points during the discussion focused on governmental responses to the threats Sir David raised. Questions ranged from concrete advice of “carbon cap and trade” for China as regards global environmental problems, to the role of biofuels in the light of food shortage, and the UK’s recent whitepaper on climate change which concentrates on 60% committed reduction in carbon dioxide by 2020.