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People Professor John Muellbauer

Senior Research Fellow, The Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School

Professor of Economics

Research Interests: Applied work on the UK economy; housing markets and the economy; household behaviour; productivity.

Summary: Professor Muellbauer is primarily an applied macroeconomist, though his microeconomic textbook with Angus Deaton, Economics and Consumer Behaviour, CUP 1980, is still in print. His 1980 paper with Angus Deaton, ‘An Almost Ideal Demand System’ in the American Economic Review was selected as one of the top twenty papers published in the first one hundred years of that journal. One important aim of his current research is to achieve a better understanding of interactions between the financial sector and the real economy. A major element is to study the impact of credit market liberalization on consumer debt, spending and housing markets in the UK, US, and Australia and non-liberalisation in Japan to throw new light on monetary transmission, financial stability and monetary policy. Closely related is studying the determinants of mortgage defaults in the UK, and examining forecast scenarios highly relevant to stress-testing of the  banking system. Other recent research includes modelling house prices and mortgage stocks in major economies, regional housing and labour markets in the UK, modelling and forecasting inflation and exchange rate passthrough and forecasting growth in the G7 countries. The macroeconomics of the South African economy is a continuing research interest. An important theme in his research has been the impact of institutional differences both across countries and through time, on monetary transmission and macroeconomic fluctuations. He has contributed  extensively to the UK debate over housing market issues, including property taxation, and also to the argument as to whether the UK should join the Euro.

Degree: Ph.D., University of California, FBA, Fellow of Econometric Society, Fellow of the European Economic Association

Media Coverage

Jan 2017
Bank of England expected to keep its options open
Dec 2016
Macroeconomics and consumption: Why central bank models failed and how to repair them
Sep 2016
The topsy-turvy world of Trumponomics
Jun 2016
Helicopter money and fiscal rules
Apr 2015
A fiscal fix for a peculiarly flawed property market
Dec 2014
Combatting Eurozone deflation: QE for the people
Nov 2014
EU economic recovery to cost 500 euros a head
Nov 2014
Quantitative Easing for the People
Oct 2014
World's city dwellers paying out $650bn more than they can afford
Apr 2014
It is time for the state to jump on the property bandwagon
Mar 2014
Six fiscal reforms for the UK’s ‘lost generation’
Mar 2014
Six budget 2014 announcements to make Britain's recovery more durable
Jan 2014
Osborne receives only grudging plaudits for recovery
Sep 2013
Why we should worry about a bubble that isn’t
Apr 2013
The Manifesto
Jan 2013
House prices still too high, say economists
Jan 2013
Question 1...Economy
Dec 2012
Profitable banks and cautious lending practices protecting Australia against "boom-bust" housing cycles
Jun 2012
A Eurobond medicine Ms Merkel could swallow
Dec 2011
Owners risked homes as crash neared
Dec 2011
The last hope for redemption
Dec 2011
Four ideas to save the common currency
Dec 2011
The Eurozone crisis
Dec 2011
Clash of the titans
Nov 2011
What the IMF should tell Europe
Nov 2011
Germany and the Eurozone: Clutching disaster from the jaws of victory?
Oct 2011
The tricky path toward greater fiscal integration