"Measuring and predicting human behaviour using online data" by Tobias Preis

Past Event

02 June 2015, 1:30pm - 3:00pm

Seminar Room 1, Oxford Martin School
34 Broad Street, (Corner of Catte and Holywell Street), Oxford, OX1 3BD

This seminar is hosted by the Oxford Martin Programme on Complexity, Risk and Resilience; the Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School; and The CABDyN Centre

Speaker: Tobias Preis, Associate Professor of Behavioural Science and Finance, University of Warwick

Abstract: In this talk, Tobias will outline some recent highlights of his research, addressing two questions.

Firstly, can big data resources provide insights into crises in financial markets? By analysing Google query volumes for search terms related to finance and views of Wikipedia articles, we find patterns which may be interpreted as early warning signs of stock market moves.

Secondly, can we provide insight into international differences in economic wellbeing by comparing patterns of interaction with the Internet? To answer this question, we introduce a future?orientation index to quantify the degree to which Internet users seek more information about years in the future than years in the past. We analyse Google logs and find a striking correlation between the country's GDP and the predisposition of its inhabitants to look forward. Our results illustrate the potential that combining extensive behavioural data sets offers for a better understanding of large scale human economic behaviour.

For further information please contact the Cabdyn Administrator: info.cabdyn@sbs.ox.ac.uk 01865 288785