Geological Hydrogen

Modern farming depends heavily on fertiliser, and producing that fertiliser depends on hydrogen. Around half of the global food supply is sustained by fertilisers made using hydrogen, yet almost all hydrogen is currently produced from fossil fuels. This creates two major vulnerabilities: hydrogen production generates significant carbon emissions, while fertiliser supply is tied to countries with abundant, low-cost natural gas. 

The consequences are already visible. Disruptions to gas supplies have driven sharp increases in fertiliser prices, with particularly serious effects in lower-income countries that depend on imports and where fertiliser can already be unaffordable. At the same time, producing hydrogen from fossil fuels accounts for around 2.5% of global carbon dioxide emissions. 

Cleaner alternatives have limitations. Green hydrogen, made using renewable electricity, remains expensive and would require enormous amounts of power at global scale. Natural hydrogen formed underground could be cheaper, but its deposits are often found in similar geological settings to oil and gas, so production could remain concentrated in the same regions. 

What if we could stimulate the natural reactions that produce hydrogen underground, allowing it to be generated in many more places?

The Oxford Martin Programme on Geological Hydrogen will investigate whether this approach could provide a cleaner, more locally accessible source of hydrogen. Researchers will establish where it could work, how much hydrogen could be produced and for how long, and where it could most effectively support fertiliser production. They will also examine the environmental, economic and regulatory conditions needed for responsible development. 

If viable, stimulated hydrogen could allow more countries to produce hydrogen closer to where it is needed, reducing dependence on imported fossil fuels and vulnerable fertiliser supply chains. This could be especially important where energy price shocks, climate change and high fertiliser costs already threaten food security. 

The programme brings together geoscience, machine learning, economics and social science because producing hydrogen is only part of the challenge. The research will combine evidence on where it can be produced, where it is needed and where development could be economically and socially viable. This will help governments, investors and industry identify where stimulated hydrogen could realistically strengthen food and energy security while reducing reliance on fossil fuels.