As cooling demand surges worldwide, the Oxford Martin Programme on the Future of Cooling is delivering the evidence, policy change and practical, low-carbon solutions needed to protect health, food and productivity while cutting emissions. From quantifying heat’s hidden costs to piloting low-carbon cold storage and advising the UK Parliament and UN, Oxford researchers are shaping heat resilience and sustainable cooling for a zero-carbon, climate-adapted future.

The Challenge

On our warming planet the need for cooling is set to be one of the fastest-growing sources of emissions in the coming decades. The number of power-hungry air conditioning appliances is expected to triple to 4 billion by 2050, leading to 6.1 billion tonnes of carbon emissions a year, which will drive further global warming and, in a vicious circle, increase the need for even more cooling.

"Our programme has helped produce actionable, long-term solutions, which will support countries as they balance climate responsibilities with development.”

Despite its essential role in health, food systems, education, and wellbeing, the climate impact of cooling had long been overlooked in research and policy until The Oxford Martin Programme on the Future of Cooling began in 2019.

The Impact

Since its launch programme has had a number of significant national and global impacts, including:

• Brought together experts from engineering, policy, geography, and health to pioneer a new interdisciplinary research agenda addressing the spiralling impacts of cooling.
• Quantified the health and economic effects of extreme heat, including risks to healthcare systems and productivity.
• Developed strategies for transitioning away from high-emissions cooling, including work on low-carbon cold storage solutions for food producers, supported by Innovate UK’s Energy Catalyst.
• Influenced national policy: research findings on the UK’s vulnerability to increasing heat were presented as the basis for a Parliamentary inquiry. Oxford researchers acted as specialist advisors, shaping the scope and interpretation of evidence for a 2024 Environmental Audit Committee report.
• Highlighted the UK’s lack of preparedness, based on published research showing the country is among the most at risk of relative increases in uncomfortably hot days.
• Raised awareness of the mental health risks of extreme heat, including evidence of increased suicide risk and worsening symptoms of psychiatric conditions, as presented in Parliamentary oral evidence.
• Provided expert advice to the UK Government and the United Nations, helping to elevate cooling as a critical component of climate adaptation discussions.

What’s Next

Reflecting on the programme’s achievements, Principal Investigator, Professor Radhika Khosla, highlighted its practical and long-term value:

“Our programme has helped produce actionable, long-term solutions, which will support countries as they balance climate responsibilities with development.”

Dr Nicole Miranda, Senior Researcher, added:

“For me, one of the biggest outcomes from this work was the overwhelming evidence base to reinforce the urgent need for a focused, UK-wide strategy for heat resilience.”

The programme’s research is now embedded within the University of Oxford’s ZERO Institute, where sustainable cooling remains a central pillar in the drive for zero-carbon energy and climate resilience.