Researchers from across the University of Oxford were at COP30 in Belém, taking part in side events, presenting new research, and working with partners to support the negotiations and inform the wider political process. They included the Directors of two of our major programmes, Nathalie Seddon from our Agile initiative and Thomas Hale from the Oxford Martin Programme on Climate Policy.
In a year of worsening climate impacts and geopolitical conflict, COP30 was both absolutely necessary and completely insufficient.
The fact that every country in the world—minus one—could reaffirm their commitment to act on climate change is powerful and real, even if their action remains insufficient.
Thomas Hale, Professor in Public Policy at the Blavatnik School of Government and Director of our Climate Policy Programme, said that conclusion of COP30 in Belém saw limited progress in efforts to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions but, in a year of failed negotiations, did just enough to hold the process together and to leave room for more progress in the future:
‘In a year of worsening climate impacts and geopolitical conflict, COP30 was both absolutely necessary and completely insufficient. The fact that every country in the world—minus one—could reaffirm their commitment to act on climate change is powerful and real, even if their action remains insufficient.’
‘The COP shows that multilateralism can endure even when the biggest countries are hostile, like the US, or disengaged, like China. The consensus rule means that the COPs themselves cannot be the engine of action, but they are a critical launchpad for the groundswell of coalitions and initiates— including also cities, regions, businesses, and investors alongside governments—that are the vectors for forward progress today.
‘Globally, climate policy is becoming more robust and real as the post-fossil economy emerges, with developing countries emerging as pace-setters on policy implementation, according to the Oxford Climate Policy Monitor. But we need to go faster.
‘At COP30 the fault lines on fossil fuels were clearer than ever before, with about half the countries pushing for a roadmap to phase out. However, many big economies are still “standing athwart history and yelling ’stop’,” to paraphrase the conservative writer William F. Buckley. The question is not whether this divide can be resolved in a global consensus process—it can’t—but rather what 'coalitions of the willing' emerge. The phaseout coalition is now bigger and stronger than ever, with an important summit planned for April 2026.’
Nathalie Seddon, Professor of Biodiversity and Founding Director of the Nature-based Solutions Initiative in the Department of Biology, Director of the Agile Initiative, co-lead of the Biodiversity and Society Programme and Leverhulme Centre for Nature Recovery, said that while Brazil has made fragile but important progress in reducing deforestation and recognising Indigenous territories, COP30 still lacks a concrete, time-bound Forest Roadmap and a stronger mandate to align climate and biodiversity action, leaving this ‘forest COP’ at risk of failing its defining test:
‘One of my main takeaways from this COP in Belém is that the political mandate is there, but the plan is not. President Lula has called for a roadmap on forests; Indigenous Peoples and local communities are here in historic numbers, asserting their rights and their critical role as forest protectors; and scientists are warning that parts of the Amazon are approaching critical tipping points. Yet the draft outcome still lacks a concrete, time-bound Forest Roadmap, and attempts to strengthen cooperation across the Rio Conventions on climate, biodiversity and land have been markedly diluted.
'Brazil has started to bend the curve on deforestation: official figures show Amazon deforestation is now around half its 2022 level and at its lowest in more than a decade, and here at COP30 the government has just fully recognised four Indigenous territories and moved to demarcate over twenty more. But this progress is fragile and still the exception, not the rule – global forest loss remains off track for the promise to halt and reverse deforestation by 2030, especially as fires and industrial agriculture continue to drive loss.
'We’ll be closer to truly stopping deforestation when measures like strong enforcement, secure Indigenous land rights, and direct finance for community-led conservation become the global norm. And when pressures from industrial animal agriculture fall as diets change.
'Yet the draft outcome still lacks a concrete, time-bound Forest Roadmap, and attempts to strengthen cooperation across the Rio Conventions on climate, biodiversity and land have been markedly diluted. For a COP hosted in the heart of the Amazon, in the most biodiverse country on Earth, that is deeply worrying. COP30 must still deliver an actionable roadmap to halt and reverse deforestation by 2030, grounded in rights and direct finance for those who safeguard the forest, and a clearer mandate to align climate and biodiversity action; without that, this ‘forest COP’ will have failed its defining test.'