Pain from parching grounds: Drought and violence against adolescents in Southern Africa

21 July 2026

Bothaina Eltigani, Luciana Leite, Mona Ibrahim, Lucie Cluver (Accelerate Research Hub/University of Oxford), Chiagozie Udeh, Zainab Yunusa, Janneke Bienert, Matseliso KhesaMokone, Phyllis Munyama (UNFPA)

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Drought is one of the most devastating climate-related crises affecting Southern Africa, with severe implications for livelihood, health, and social stability. This evidence brief summarises research from Zimbabwe, Mozambique, and Lesotho, which reveals statistically significant associations between drought exposure and increased risk of violence against adolescents and youth, by both intimate partners and non-partner perpetrators. The analysis combines three cross-sectional, nationally-representative Violence Against Children Surveys (VACS) – covering 20,290 adolescents and young people aged 13-24 in Zimbabwe, Mozambique, and Lesotho – with Standardised Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) data to measure drought exposure.