Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Kerstin Hötte, Melline Somers, and Angelos Theodorakopoulos

We systematically review the empirical literature on the past four decades of technological change and its impact on employment, distinguishing between five broad technology categories (ICT, Robots, Innovation, TFP-style, Other). We find across studies that the labor displacing effect of technology appears to be more than offset by compensating mechanisms that create or reinstate labor. This holds for most technology-types, suggesting that anxieties over widespread technology-driven unemployment lack an empirical base. Nevertheless, blue-collar workers have been adversely affected by technological change, and effective up- and reskilling strategies should remain at the forefront of policy making along targeted support systems.