The future of employment: How susceptible are jobs to computerisation?

29 September 2016

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Carl Benedikt Frey, Michael A. Osborne, Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 1PT, United Kingdom Department of Engineering Science, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3PJ, United Kingdom Received 24 September 2015, Accepted 19 August 2016, Available online 29 September 2016

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In this paper, the authors examine how susceptible jobs are to computerisation. To assess this, they begin by implementing a novel methodology to estimate the probability of computerisation for 702 detailed occupations, using a Gaussian process classifier. Based on these estimates, they examine expected impacts of future computerisation on US labour market outcomes, with the primary objective of analysing the number of jobs at risk and the relationship between an occupations probability of computerisation, wages and educational attainment.