Utilizing general human movement models to predict the spread of emerging infectious diseases in resource poor settings

26 March 2019

Nature Scientific Reports
View Journal Article / Working Paper

Human mobility is an important driver of geographic spread of infectious pathogens. Detailed information about human movements during outbreaks are, however, difficult to obtain and may not be available during future epidemics. This paper shows that transmission patterns derived from general human movement models can improve forecasts of spatio-temporal transmission patterns in places where local mobility data is unavailable. The programme hopes that this work can be used to better target interventions during large disease outbreaks in resource poor environments.