At the heart of the Oxford Martin Programme on Forecasting Technological Change are three vital questions: Which technologies are likely to make advances? Which might develop so fast that they pose risks to humanity? And at what rate can we expect new technologies to be deployed?

Answering these questions matters because technological innovation is a major driver of economic prosperity and social change, but we still lack the data and tools to understand it properly. The insights uncovered will help governments, businesses and researchers make smarter choices, from investing in the energy transition to preparing for the impacts of automation.

By collecting and analysing data on how technologies change, the programme will improve forecasts and reveal which areas of innovation are most important.

It will focus on two domains: the energy transition, providing clearer evidence to guide investment in solutions to climate change, and the diffusion and performance of artificial intelligence, looking at how quickly AI tools spread and how their capabilities improve, factors that could transform economies and working lives at unprecedented speed.

The programme will create a new resource, hosted by Our World in Data, for understanding and shaping technological change. It will give policymakers, investors and other decision-makers the trusted evidence they need to prioritise resources, capture opportunities and manage risks.

Find out more: https://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/forecasting-tech-change