This talk draws on findings from applying novel empirical approaches to understanding climate change and its impacts in the past, present, and future.
The talk will highlight the impact major ‘natural’ changes in global climate have had on the five largest mass extinctions over the last 500 million years, and will explain modelling of recent CO2 emissions and concentrations which confirm the impact of human activity, with a focus on UK CO2 emissions over the period 1860 - 2016. The role of major policy interventions which have reduced the UK’s per capita annual emissions below any level since 1860 when the UK was the 'workshop of the world’ will be investigated.
Professor Sir David Hendry, INET Oxford and Climate Econometrics, will illustrate how to investigate the costs of ‘mis-forecasting’ extreme climate events by studying the economic impacts of inaccuracies in hurricane forecasts and will discuss empirical evidence on local climate impacts of emissions and what influences climate-change scepticism. Future climate is illustrated by projecting the impacts of 1.5°C versus 2°C on temperature and sea-level rise.
This talk will be followed by a drinks reception, all welcome
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About the speaker
Professor Sir David F. Hendry, Kt, is Director, Program in Economic Modelling, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, Co-director of Climate Econometrics, Professor of Economics, Oxford University, and Fellow of Nuffield College. He was previously Professor of Econometrics, LSE. He has held visiting appointments at the Cowles Foundation Yale University, University of California at Berkeley and San Diego, Duke University, as well as being Leverhulme Personal Research Professor and ESRC Professorial Research Fellow at the University of Oxford, where he was Chairman of the Economics Department from 2001 - 2007.
His research interests span econometric methods, theory, modelling, and history; computing; empirical economics; macro-econometrics; climate econometrics; and forecasting, on which he has published more than 200 papers and 25 books.
He was Knighted in 2009; is an Honorary Vice-President and past President, Royal Economic Society; Fellow, British Academy, Royal Society of Edinburgh, Econometric Society, Academy of Social Sciences, Journal of Econometrics; Founding Fellow, International Association for Applied Econometrics and Honorary Fellow, International Institute of Forecasters; Foreign Honorary Member, American Economic Association and American Academy of Arts and Sciences. He has received eight Honorary Doctorates, a Lifetime Achievement Award from the ESRC, and the Guy Medal in Bronze from the Royal Statistical Society. The ISI lists him as one of the world’s 200 most cited economists and he is a Thomson Reuters Citation Laureate. He founded the Econometrics Journal and has been Econometrics Editor of the Review of Economic Studies and the Economic Journal.