This seminar is hosted by The Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School

Speaker: Matthew Karlson, Research Student, Department of Computing, University of Surrey

Summary: What determines the direction of technological change within an industry? In this presentation it is argued that technological exemplars play a key role. An exemplar is a design model or pattern to be built upon and imitated. Koen Frenken’s model of technological paradigm formation suggests that the selective construction of a design over time produces an exemplar with ‘locked-in’ core elements. These core elements channel future change along a particular technological trajectory. Here a new model is presented that suggests that, where competitive forces are sufficient, ‘two-tier’ selection (both selective construction of designs and selection of firms at the industry level) results in a dominant exemplar and associated trajectory at the industry level. Variety reducing forces interact with variety generating forces such that the balance determines whether or not a trajectory will emerge. esses.