New study forecasts only one in five workers in declining occupations; lays out plan for re-skilling workers

28 September 2017

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Pearson, in partnership with Nesta, and in collaboration with the Oxford Martin School, today released a report “The Future of Skills: Employment in 2030.” The study takes an entirely new approach to forecasting employment and skill demands in the US and UK. In contrast to many recent headlines, the study finds that many jobs today will still be in demand by 2030 and beyond. However, while jobs may remain, the skills needed for success are changing.

For the first time ever, researchers combined diverse human expertise with active machine learning to produce a more nuanced view of future employment trends. Using this innovative approach, the study forecasts that only one in five workers are in occupations that face a high likelihood of decline.

The research also forecasts one in ten people are highly likely to experience a rise in demand for their job. The remaining roughly 70% of workers are in jobs where there is greater uncertainty about the future: these workers can boost their prospects if they can invest in the right skills. The findings dig deeper into how we can take action to help more people prepare for the future.

Across both the US and the UK, the occupations forecast to most likely experience a rise in employment are associated with education, health care and wider public sector occupations. In the US, however, confidence in the growth of health-care occupations, traditionally defined, is lower than might be expected given the size of the industry and the aging of the population, perhaps reflecting political uncertainties related to US health care policy. Creative, digital, design, and engineering occupations are also found to have bright outlooks in both countries. Decline in employment is forecast to take place in occupations related to transportation and traditional manufacturing.

Knowledge areas such as English language, history, philosophy and administration and management are all generally associated with occupations forecast to see a rise in workforce share. By contrast, STEM-related knowledge areas such as science and technology design will find use only in particular occupations.

Meanwhile, strong social skills will be the key to success as demand for uniquely human skills rises. The skills forecast to be in higher future demand include social perceptiveness, active learning, active listening, judgment, and decision making. In addition, cognitive skills such as fluency of ideas, originality, and oral expression are forecast to increase in demand - whereas demand for physical abilities such as stamina, depth perception, are forecast to decline.

“The future of work is brighter than conventional wisdom suggests - it is not going to be human versus machine, but rather human and machine,” said John Fallon, CEO of Pearson. “It is clear that technology is changing the global economy and labour markets, but we still retain the ability to control our destiny. We must reevaluate the skills people will need for a digital future, and update our education systems to ensure teachers have the right tools to help students succeed in the workforce of tomorrow."

"In the face of legitimate concerns about the consequences of technological change on jobs, our study identifies where new opportunities might emerge," said Michael Osborne, co-Director of the Oxford Martin Programme on Technology and Employment. “We show what the entirely new jobs of the future might look like: these include those accessible to those affected by automation.”

Many studies agree that occupations with relatively low skills requirements are those most under threat of automation. However, this study finds that some activities like food preparation and hospitality will grow in importance, reflecting wider consumer trends, such as the re-emergence of artisanal employment in occupations like brewing and barbering.

In the US specifically, occupations related to education and teaching, animal care, the legal profession and engineers are likely to see a high rise in demand. These jobs are followed closely by social science professions, personal appearance occupations, counsellors and social workers and entertainment and sports related occupations.

In the UK, occupations related to natural and social sciences, food and hospitality and education and teaching are the most likely to see a rise in demand. Engineering occupations, health and social services jobs, artistic and media occupations and public service jobs will also see an increase in demand.

The full report can be viewed here.