After five years of pioneering work, the Oxford Martin Programme on the Future of Cooling has concluded, making significant contributions both to raising the profile of a poorly understood issue and to providing solutions to reduce the carbon emissions of cooling.
The programme was launched to address a critical yet overlooked aspect of climate change – the spiralling impact created by rising temperatures and extreme heat leading to surging demand for cooling, which in turn creates more emissions which drive temperatures higher, in turn creating yet higher demand for cooling. Led by Radhika Khosla, Associate Professor at the Smith School of Enterprise and Environment, the Future of Cooling programme has garnered attention from policymakers, academia, and the media alike.
The rapid escalation in heatwaves and extreme temperatures worldwide has highlighted the urgent need for sustainable cooling solutions. By 2050, the International Energy Agency projects the global number of air conditioners to increase threefold, the equivalent of a new unit being installed every second for the next 30 years. This surge could place a severe strain on energy systems and undermine efforts to meet climate goals, particularly if high-emission refrigerants continue to proliferate. Cooling, while essential, represents a substantial environmental burden if left unchecked; the Oxford Martin programme sought to identify ways to balance this need with the imperative to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
At the time of the programme’s inception, the concept of sustainable cooling was relatively unexplored. According to Professor Khosla, this lack of attention in global climate discussions represented a ‘blind spot’ in sustainability debates.
‘The idea of extreme heat and rising cooling demand had been on my mind for a long time, and particularly when I would witness heat in other parts of the world but also saw the speed and the rate at which air conditioning use was rising,’ she said.
‘I realised that Oxford doesn't have an area of research that confronts what is going to be one of the largest challenges to energy demand and sustainable development moving forward.’
To meet the demand for cooling while mitigating its climate impact, the programme assembled a multidisciplinary team to study the technical, social, and health-related dimensions of cooling with the goal of producing actionable, long-term solutions. Future of Cooling brought together experts from different fields, including engineering, geography, policy and health, to address the issue of cooling from multiple perspectives.
Rafael Perera, Professor of Medical Statistics at the Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, who joined the programme to lead on health sector research, said: ‘We set out to understand how rising temperatures influenced mortality and increased demand for resources in the healthcare system. Our aim was to lay the groundwork for enhancing preparedness, developing practical solutions, and ensuring they can be applied on a global scale.
‘At the time, no programme was comprehensively exploring solutions - considering not just technical needs and tactics, but also the social implications and interactions with health. We recognised the importance of understanding how health systems contribute to pollution and, crucially, how they can play a role in minimising its effects. This holistic approach was essential to fill that gap.’
The programme’s design reflected the understanding that cooling impacts and solutions are not confined to a single discipline or region. From evaluating passive cooling designs in architecture to examining cooling needs within healthcare systems, the team considered all facets of the cooling ecosystem, particularly how these could interact and support the broader UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
The programme’s ground-breaking early work in 2020, published in Nature Sustainability, emphasised that cooling intersects with each of the UN’s 17 SDGs, underscoring its necessity for health, education, and sustainable cities, among other areas. Yet, ‘cooling’ did not appear in any of the 169 targets set forth in these goals, suggesting that this critical area had been largely overlooked. This early paper set the stage for the programme’s subsequent research, aiming to fill a gap in both academic and policy-driven discussions on climate adaptation.
The Future of Cooling achieved numerous milestones in research, policy guidance, and media reach. Over 40 research publications contributed to the evolving discourse on sustainable cooling, addressing topics from the cultural variations in cooling needs to the impact of extreme heat on healthcare. This extensive research output has established Oxford as a leader in sustainable cooling, influencing global climate policies and earning the programme over 3,000 media mentions worldwide.
In the policy sphere, the programme played a pivotal role in guiding cooling and heat resilience strategies. As a special advisor to the UK House of Commons’ Environmental Audit Committee, the team supported the development of a sustainable cooling strategy for the UK, designed to enhance heat resilience across the country. Furthermore, Professor Khosla’s leadership in the UN Global Cooling Watch 2023 Report underscored the programme’s international influence, providing scientific evidence that now underpins the Global Cooling Pledge, endorsed by 71 countries.
Although the programme has concluded, its impact continues to resonate. The insights produced by Future of Cooling have laid a solid foundation for further work in sustainable cooling, with an emphasis on implementing these findings on a larger scale.
‘The legacy of this programme lies in its significant contributions to the literature, highlighting where we need to focus geographically and how to prioritise passive cooling strategies.,’ Professor Khosla noted, highlighting the importance of taking research from the academic sphere to real-world applications, especially in high-risk regions. What made the programme unique, she emphasised, was its capacity to shape a future where sustainable cooling solutions can meet rising demand without compromising environmental goals.
‘It has advanced our understanding of the connections between cooling, policy, and healthcare systems, while also exploring which business models are likely to succeed or fail. I believe that's the real legacy, taking what we've learned and applying it to create meaningful impact.’
The Oxford Martin Programme on the Future of Cooling stands as a testament to the power of interdisciplinary research and innovation, addressing one of the 21st century’s most urgent energy challenges. As cooling demands increase, the programme’s insights and methodologies will serve as a blueprint for sustainable adaptation in the face of escalating global temperatures.