Estelle Paulus, Michael Obersteiner, Nicola Ranger

Paulus E, Ranger N, Obersteiner M. The Resilient Doughnut: Building Systemic Resilience into the Global Food System. Oxford: Environmental Change Institute; 2025.

The global food system is arguably one of our most critical systems. It impacts billions of people globally and depends on a complex network of producers, processors, distributors, and consumers. Simultaneously, the global food system in interconnected with other global systems such as trade, energy, and infrastructure; commodities such as oil and chemicals; as well as local climate and water resources. It also encompasses a vast global business network, estimated to contribute around USD 10 trillion to global GDP a year.  

Yet this system – vital to human life and the global economy – faces several overlaying and interconnected threats, including a growing global population, climate change, biodiversity loss, environmental degradation, economic crises, pests and pandemics, as well as war and conflict. Such shocks can affect several or all sectors of the system, from inputs to production to waste management – with the potential to cause systemic collapse or failure. Indeed, the high degree of interconnectedness among different actors within the food system can lead to cascading effects, in which an initial shock is amplified to cause greater damage. At the same time, as a major driver of environmental degradation and climate change, the food system itself is a significant source of systemic risk.  

Moreover, resistance to change of unsustainable activities and norms currently locks in existing inefficiencies and inequalities and erodes long-term functioning of the system. In its current state, the global food system crosses Earth's planetary boundaries in multiple dimensions, and scientists are in broad consensus on the urgent need for food system transformation towards sustainability. Long-term resilience depends on a transformation to a more sustainable food system. 

By analogy with Kate Raworth’s Doughnut Economics diagram for a regenerative and distributive economy, this research refers to the ‘Resilient Doughnut’ to emphasise the urgent need to shift our food system into the safe and just space – between meeting the social foundations (defined as the minimum requirements for a thriving human society) and staying within the planetary boundaries. The food system must be capable of remaining within those boundaries when disturbed by shocks – in other words, it must be able to get into and stay inside the Doughnut.