Systemic impacts of disruptions at maritime chokepoints
The Oxford Martin
Systemic Resilience Initiative
The Challenge
The COVID-19 pandemic has demonstrated more strongly than ever the interconnected nature of risks. A single shock can send waves throughout global supply chains, infrastructure networks and financial systems and can seriously harm economies and human welfare along the way.
Globalisation and the complex interconnections between industries, nations and financial systems mean that 21st century risks are systemic rather than individual perils. Yet, current approaches to risk management are largely inadequate for managing systemic risks, leaving countries and the international system unprepared for major, complex shocks. This can result in a dramatic impact on welfare: famine, loss of income and employment, epidemics, mass violence or the loss of essential services.
The Oxford Martin Systemic Resilience Initiative aims to advance practical solutions to manage shocks with the potential for major and prolonged economic disruption, severe human or economic impacts, and contagion. It will bring together academics specialising in biophysical modelling, risk analysis, transboundary resources and infrastructure, development, disaster preparedness and economics to reflect the high complexity and interdependencies of the systems involved.
The programme will draw on existing methods across multiple disciplines to design early warning systems and identify cost-effective solutions for strengthening the resilience of socio-economic systems to systemic risks. It will create roadmaps and toolkits of local and global solutions to improve the welfare of people and the resilience of the systems and institutions upon which they depend.
Publications
Getting into the doughnut: A framework for assessing systemic resilience in the global food system
Integrating Nature into the IMF-World Bank’s Debt Sustainability Framework for Low Income Countries: A New Systematic Approach to Nature-Economy Risk Assessment
Climate Change and Sub-Saharan Africa: The Role of Central Banks
The Resilient Doughnut: Building Systemic Resilience into the Global Food System
Towards UK Systemic Resilience to International Cascading Climate Risks: The Role of Infrastructure and Supply Chains
People
Michael Obersteiner
Director of the Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford
Rama Cont
Professor of Mathematical Finance
Stefan Dercon
Professor of Economic Policy
Jim Hall
Professor of Climate and Environmental Risks
Matthias Wildemeersch
Senior Research Associate
Juan Sabuco
Senior Research Associate
Samira Barzin
Geospatial Economic Analyst
Rocco Zizzamia
Postdoctoral Researcher
Jimena Alvarez
Research Associate in Resilient Systems & the Environment
Thom Wetzer
Associate Professor of Law and Finance
Mark Bernhofen
Lead, Risk Anaytics for Adaptation Finance
Olivier Mahul
Visiting Fellow
Past Events
'Getting ready for the Anthropocene: overcoming obstacles on the development path for municipal water and sanitation services' with Prof Dale Whittington
Panel Discussion: ‘Climate overshoot: devastating risks and possible responses’
'The role of a global multilateral development bank in the world today' with Dr Samuel Maimbo
Panel discussion: 'Post-COP28 Debrief: Does the agreement go far enough?'
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